Trade war dominates G20 Summit

The 14th summit of the Group of 20 (G20) major economies was held at the International Exhibition Center, Osaka, Japan on June 28-29. The G20, a coalition of the leaders of the largest and fastest-growing economies, was formed in 1999 soon after the financial crisis in East Asia that affected many countries around the world.

The annual summit has gradually evolved into a major forum to promote international financial stability, discuss important economic issues, and other pressing global concerns. The group consists of 19 countries and the European Union and accounts for around 85 percent of the world's Gross Domestic Product (GDP), nearly 75 percent of all global trade, and about 66 percent of the world's population.

The US-China trade dispute has already cost billions of dollars for companies on both sides. It has also disrupted global manufacturing and agitated global markets.

The ongoing trade war between China and the United States and signs of a global economic slowdown took the limelight at the two-day G20 summit. Leaders raised their concern over trade tensions between the world's two biggest economies and the dire consequences of a protracted trade war for the world economy. Jean-Claude Juncker, President of the European Commission, referred to US-China trade relations as "difficult" and raised the issue of the risks of the slowdown of global economy. Experts also raised their concern about the spread of dispute between the largest economies beyond trade.

The United States has already imposed tariffs on about USD 250 billion of Chinese imports. US President Donald Trump also threatened to levy additional tariffs on another USD 325 billion of Chinese goods, covering almost all imports from China into the US. In addition, as part of "protecting" the US computer networks from "foreign adversaries", the US commerce department has added Huawei—the Chinese telecommunications giant and leader in fifth generation or 5G mobile phone technology—to its "entity list", declared as "security threat", and banned US companies from doing business as well as sharing any technology with Huawei.

Soon afterwards, Google has confirmed its restriction of Huawei's access to the Android operating system and chipmakers until further notice. The US also put pressure on other countries to drop Huawei from the development of 5G network. Relations between the two countries have severely soured due to the escalating trade tensions. In response, China imposed tariffs on USD 60 billion worth of US goods and also cancelled purchases of US soybeans.

Needless to say, the US-China trade dispute has already cost billions of dollars for companies on both sides. It has also disrupted global manufacturing and agitated global markets. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that the US-China trade dispute could cut global GDP by 0.5 percent in 2020 or about USD 455 billion.

Regarding the ongoing tensions, Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump held high-stake talks on the sidelines of G20 summit in Osaka. The US agreed to postpone levying additional tariffs on Chinese goods that it had threatened earlier. Both Xi and Trump agreed to a ceasefire and a return to talks. Trump declared the US trade negotiations with China to be "right back on track" and mentioned the scope of reaching a fair trade deal on easing tensions with China as "monumental".

However, no decision has yet been made from the US side about the relaxation of strict rules imposed on Huawei. So far, the resumption of trade talks based on mutual respect and equal-footing has been considered as the best outcome coming from the Trump-Xi talks at G20 summit.

Besides, discussion on global economy also got priority at the summit. The leaders of G20 nations agreed to work towards a "free, fair, and non-discriminatory" trade, "digital economy", and "open market". Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa called for joint efforts to stabilise international trade and oppose protectionism in a meeting on the G20 sidelines, though they kept from criticising Trump-style protectionism.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe delivered his speech with a particular emphasis on "free and open economy" for "peace and prosperity". Likewise, Chinese President Xi Jinping addressed the issue of open global trading system, multilateralism, and open world economy. Xi reiterated China's vision for easier market access through further opening up its market, proactively expanding imports, and continuously improving its business environment for foreign enterprises along with China's engagement with various trade agreement negotiations. China's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced further reducing the negative list of foreign investment and widening access to petroleum and gas exploration, agriculture, mining and manufacturing.

G20 nations also endeavoured to forge a consensus on geopolitical tensions such as worsening relationship between the US and Iran. To be specific, Donald Trump announced to impose additional sanctions on Iran in response to the shooting down of an unmanned US drone in the Gulf that sparked fears of a new war breaking out in the Middle East. The leaders urged both Washington and Tehran to reopen a negotiation process and resolve their differences peacefully. The United Nations' Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres, highlighted the urgency to deescalate the rising US-Iran tensions and avoid confrontation.

Climate change was another contentious item on the agenda at the G20 meeting and got a fair amount of attention. In order to protect the environment, G20 nations agreed to increase their annual spending on coal-fired plants to USD 64 billion. All G20 nations except the US reaffirmed their support to the successful implementation of the 2015 Paris Agreement.

Despite having some shortcomings such as the lack of a consensus on US-China trade dispute, and absence of a concrete promise to end US-Iran tensions, the summit will be noted for some positive developments such as the US-China agreement on resumption of trade talks, consensus on free and fair trade, and the increase in annual spending for environmental protection.

Sultana Yesmin is a PhD Candidate, School of Politics and International Studies, Central China Normal University (CCNU), Wuhan, Hubei, China.

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