In which direction is Bangladesh heading?
As an activist, I interact with many people from all walks of life every day. They include young and old, women and men, ordinary villagers and urban elites. They also represent different shades of political opinions. However, one common trait among all of them is, they are preoccupied with our upcoming general election.
The common questions that I face in these interactions are: in which direction is Bangladesh as a nation heading? Will there be an election at the end of 2023 or the beginning of 2024? Will the election be free and fair? Will it be participatory? Will there be dialogues between the major political parties? Will there be a caretaker government? What will be the role of India, US, UK, Japan, and the EU? Will Khaleda Zia be able to participate in the election? Will Sheikh Rehana be in politics and contest the next election? Will there be further sanctions? Will there be violence during the election? And so on.
For all latest news, follow The Daily Star's Google News channel. Through all these questions, these people invariably want to know the country's political destination via the coming election. Many of them feel that as a commentator on political issues, I know or should know the answers to these questions. Many of them are disappointed that I do not.
Faced with such questions, I normally ask them about their own opinions and engage in conversations. Most of them do have opinions – rather strong opinions – about the future direction of the country. Many of them also do not hesitate to express them. Some even insist that their opinions are the correct ones, and I should wait to see their predicted future unfold.
Based on my conversations with hundreds of people over the past few weeks, I can see three possible scenarios unfolding in the coming months. The first and best scenario is of a free, fair and credible parliamentary election, which will be not only participatory, but also competitive and credible. In the election, people will be able to cast their votes and our next government will be based on their consent. In other words, our democracy will be back on track through the next election.
The second scenario is of a violent election. To some of the people I spoke with, violence is inevitable as people are angry not only because they could not vote in the past, but also because of the price hike of essentials as well as corruption. Many of them think that if violence goes out of control, everyone will be at risk. However, no one wants to see violence; they want peace and harmony. Some people feel that peace has become the new name of development – development will neither take place nor sustain with violence.
Almost everyone I spoke with in the last few weeks are convinced that by whatever means, the ruling Awami League and its alliance partners are going to stay in power, the consequences of which, in their view, would lead us towards an uncertain future in the long run. In their opinion, free and fair elections are the only legal, constitutional, and peaceful means of going forward. If that is thwarted, it would lead to violence.
The third scenario is of another controversial election like the previous two. However, most of the people I interacted with feel that different types of strategies will be used to manipulate the upcoming election. Many of them are convinced that the ruling party will come back to power one way or the other. They feel that the Election Commission and the ruling party's friends and cronies are ready to do the betting for them.
Almost everyone I interacted with in the last few weeks are convinced that a free and fair election is a pipe dream. This is because the main stakeholders – the Election Commission, bureaucracy, judiciary, and the law enforcement agencies – are totally partisan, and they will make sure that the ruling party stays in power. Almost all of them have given up the hope for a free and fair election.
Most people I interacted with in the last few weeks feel that there won't be serious violence, because the law enforcement agencies will be able to contain it. However, if the violence does escalate, many of the beneficiaries, in their view, will flee the country because they have already stashed away significant financial resources abroad. They also feel that with serious violence, the election will become uncertain.
Almost everyone I spoke with in the last few weeks are convinced that by whatever means, the ruling Awami League and its alliance partners are going to stay in power, the consequences of which, in their view, would lead us towards an uncertain future in the long run. In their opinion, free and fair elections are the only legal, constitutional, and peaceful means of going forward. If that is thwarted, it would lead to violence. Thus, manipulated elections will serve no purpose.
Some of the people, especially those who are sympathetic to the ruling party, are confident that the prime minister is a miracle maker who can use her magic wand to find a solution to our electoral problem. She has solved many thorny problems in the past. She has, for example, abolished the highly popular caretaker government system through the 15th amendment of our constitution and could manage its fallout. She can do it again.
We, too, hope that Sheikh Hasina's lucky streak will continue, and she will be able to pull a solution out of her hat for holding a free and fair parliamentary election for Bangladesh.
Dr Badiul Alam Majumdar is secretary of SHUJAN: Citizens for Good Governance.
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