The relations between India and Maldives have reached a new low following a row over derogatory comments made by Maldives' deputy minister regarding Indian PM Modi's visit to Lakshadweep and Maldives' call for the withdrawal of Indian troops by March 15, 2024. Conversely, China-Maldives relations have soared to new heights, culminating in the agreement on a "comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership" during the Maldives President's visit to China in the second week of January. Given the diminishing likelihood of Maldives maintaining a delicate balance between the two Asian giants, the future of India-Maldives relations appears to be inversely proportional to Maldives' ties with China.

The 2023 Presidential election in the Maldives was characterised by the international media as a contest between India and China, as the two leading candidates showed clear affiliations with the two major powers. The then-president Mohamed Salih was seen as pro-Indian due to his "India First" policy, while contestant Mohamed Muizzu was regarded as pro-Chinese owing to his "India Out" campaign. Ultimately, Mohamed Muizzu emerged victorious, riding the wave of the "India Out" campaign.

India expressed its discontent by sending a low-profile minister to Muizzu's swearing-in ceremony. In turn, the new Maldivian president didn't hesitate to formally request the visiting Indian minister to recall their military staff during their meeting the day after the ceremony. It's worth noting that Indian PM Modi attended the oath-taking ceremony of the former President Salih. Since then, there have been several attempts to arrest the free-fall in the relationship between the two countries, but so far, the outcome remains to be seen.

In the near future, it appears that Muizzu is determined to break free from his country's reliance on India. Apart from pressing for the withdrawal of the Indian military from the island, his government has chosen not to renew a hydrographic survey deal with India. This decision aligns with his electoral commitment to terminate all agreements with foreign parties, particularly India. The pact, inked during Prime Minister Narendra Modi's 2019 visit to the islands, was viewed as a symbolic representation of India-Maldives defence ties. India interprets the withdrawal of Indian hydrographic ships from Maldivian waters as an action designed to support China's marine surveys of the surrounding seas, a critical component in advancing its anti-submarine warfare capabilities.

Despite efforts to reduce India's influence in the Maldives, India will strive to maintain a strategic presence on the island, given its crucial role in the broader Indian Ocean strategy. China's overwhelming presence in the Maldives poses a potential threat that India cannot afford to ignore. Despite public discontent in India regarding the recent controversy over Modi's photo, the Indian government remains committed to fostering a positive relationship with the Maldives, aligning with its "Neighbourhood First" policy. India continues to express hope for a resolution to the ongoing dispute with the Maldives regarding the deployment of Indian troops in the islands, as conveyed by a spokesperson from the Indian foreign ministry.

The Maldives also cannot afford to overlook India entirely, given its economic dependence on tourism and the imperative to strengthen foreign exchange reserves for debt repayment. The potential economic ramifications are significant if Indian tourists choose to bypass the Maldives, especially considering that India was the primary source of tourists for the Maldives in 2023.

A critical analysis of President Muizzu's recent state visit to China is also imperative for a nuanced understanding of the future trajectory of India-Maldives relations. The visit has stirred geopolitical considerations, with Muizzu expressing intentions to implement the Maldives-China Free Trade Agreement (FTA) and seeking collaboration under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) for key infrastructure projects. The signing of 20 agreements covering diverse sectors such as tourism, fisheries, digital economy, and disaster risk reduction has drawn attention to China's expanding influence in the region. Notably, while there are concerns, the absence of major defence or security shifts in these agreements helps alleviate immediate security threats for India.

Opting for alignment with China might currently appear as the remedy for Muizzu's Maldives to counter the challenges arising from a strained relationship with India. However, relying too heavily on China carries inherent risks. There already exists an apprehension about falling into a Chinese debt trap and the potential for corruption in Chinese projects. The Maldives is already grappling with substantial Chinese debt, with Malé owing over $1.3 billion, constituting 20 percent of its total debt. It's worth noting that Muizzu's coalition partner and former President Abdulla Yameen Abdul Gayoom faced public backlash for his pronounced tilt towards China during his presidency. Maldives, under his leadership, joined China's Belt and Road initiative.

Nevertheless, the outlook for future India-Maldives relations seems grim. If Muizzu remains true to his pledge of not allowing any foreign power to interfere in the internal affairs of the Maldives that can be some sort of relief for India. Otherwise India at present doesn't have much leverage to hold back Maldives from becoming another pearl in the Chinese string of pearls surrounding India. However, Muizzu's overreliance on Chinese support might lead to a "China Out" campaign in five years if he fails to deliver. It's also crucial to remember that, in the recent election, the pro-Indian candidate, Mohamed Salih, secured 46 percent of the votes. Until then, India is left grappling with a complex geopolitical scenario, where its once-closest maritime ally is cosying up to its key adversary.

Shamsuddoza Sajen is a journalist and researcher. His X handle is @shamsud_doza

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