Signs of reverse migration to villages as economic struggle persists

The number of people who returned to villages from cities and major towns almost doubled in 2022 from a year ago as living expenses exceeded their incomes, official figures showed.

Some 10.9 out of every 1,000 people returned to the countryside in 2022, up 84.7 percent year-on-year, according to Bangladesh Sample Vital Statistics published recently by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS).

In contrast, migration to urban centres from rural areas rose by 43.47 percent to 26.4.

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Md Alamgir Hossen, project director of the Sample Vital Registration System of the BBS, cited the lingering impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on people's lives and livelihoods for the domestic reverse migration.

"Besides, higher inflation and the Russia-Ukraine war had both economic and social impacts."

He said people try to deal with shocks in different ways and adopt various strategies. Migration is one of the strategies.

For economic reasons, a family's breadwinner relocates when he or she finds employment opportunities. Besides, people move to new places due to social reasons such as marriage.

"These factors also play a major role in internal migration," Hossen said.

According to the BBS, the number of people who moved to rural areas from urban centres was 0.7 and 3.9 in 2018 and 2019, respectively, out of every 1,000 people. It surged to 8.4 in 2020 as many left cities en masse after the government enforced a nationwide shutdown in March of the year to limit the spread of the virus.

On the other hand, the number of people who moved to urban areas from villages fell to 12.7 per thousand in 2020 from 15 in the previous year.

"Many people returned to villages to absorb the shock of the pandemic," Hossen said.

As restrictions eased following the improvement of the pandemic situation, the flow from villages to towns fell to 5.9 per thousand in 2021.

Some 18.4 people went in the opposite direction, which was 48 percent higher than the previous year.

In the years before the pandemic, people migrated to cities and towns in search of jobs and to do business as the economy thrived.

The state-run statistical agency said the yearn to live with

family members accounts for 63.4 percent of domestic migration. Among other factors, economic opportunities come second at 16 percent.

Imran Matin, executive director of the BRAC Institute of Governance and Development, said people moved to villages at the height of the pandemic after failing to cope with the higher cost of living amid lower social safety nets available for the vulnerable non-poor in towns and cities.

So, after returning to villages, they had to dip into their savings to make expenses. When the economy reopened, they returned to urban areas.

"But due to the lingering economic crisis owing to higher inflation and the Ukraine war, they were compelled to back to villages again," Matin said.

Bangladesh's inflation persisted above 7 percent in the second half of 2022 owing to external and internal crises, eroding the purchasing power of the poor and the low-income groups disproportionately.

The researcher said the SME sector did not recover because of lower-than-required incentives extended by the government and the central bank. Therefore, the urban vulnerable non-poor and marginal groups who are involved or dependent on the sector returned to rural areas again.

Matin thinks the nature of the reverse migration will be different from other times and it might be a long-term migration.

"Since the cost of living is higher in urban areas, the newly migrated group will try to settle in villages and look for jobs there."

Matin, however, sees some positive aspects in the reverse migration.

"They will try to bring innovations to adapt to rural life. So, there should be some policy support as well as credit support for them so that they can contribute to the economy by utilising their expertise."

Hossain Zillur Rahman, executive chairman of the Power and Participation Research Centre, also blamed the higher cost of living for people's return to villages.

"Higher inflation has made it difficult for them to live in the city even if they have an income."

Under the circumstances, rural employment needs to be increased and the urban social security system needs to be strengthened, Rahman said.