A historic decision, but can Kamala Harris beat Trump?
Few weeks ago, even after Joe Biden's disastrous presidential debate, it didn't seem that his need to drop out of the race would become inevitable. Then things changed overnight, as it happens with politics: an unprecedented assassination attempt on former President Trump, and a viral picture of his blood trickled face with a fist held up high fuelled widespread speculation: "Did Trump just win the election?" It was followed with a loud Republican National Convention, a recharged MAGA cult and the altogether deification of Donald Trump: "a man impeached, convicted, almost killed but chosen by God to lead the United States of America," according to Trump supporters.
The pro-Democrat, liberal US media who want Donald Trump to lose—from CNN to ABC News—ran rigorous reporting, or rather a campaign, to get Joe Biden to step down. Just two days before Biden announced the historic decision, CNN reported that Biden was "seething" at all suggestions to step down, including from former President Obama and Nancy Pelosi, when they tried to explain that his chances at winning were becoming untenable. Each passing day, it seemed like the Democrats were playing a losing game with a defiant old Joe stubbornly holding onto power.
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It was becoming increasingly clear that the party needed a jaw-dropping, shocking moment to turn the tide against the surging popularity of Donald Trump. The clock was ticking, and the party delivered on the desired drama on Sunday, July 21, when Joe Biden announced that he is dropping out of the race, two weeks ahead of the Democratic National Convention. Biden has now undoubtedly sealed his legacy, for the good and the bad. He has had one of the longest political careers in US history—the youngest to become a senator, and the oldest to become a President.
Joe Biden will be remembered as the politician who let go—when veteran politicians in power rarely do—by choice. The step Biden took will domestically restore at least some of his tarnished image, especially in regard to his foreign policy blunders since last year. While there's a lot to learn from Joe Biden's wrongs, there's also a lot to learn from his best decision yet: a reminder for leaders around the world that even as heads of state, it is the country, the people, that matter first in every democracy.
The Republican Party's vigour will be overshadowed by Biden's decision and the overall respect for Biden, for at least the next two weeks till the DNC. The Republicans chose to stand behind a convicted felon, milking the tragedy of his assassination attempt. Most of them who spoke in the RNC, from DeSantis to Nikki Haley, had bashed Trump just six months ago when they ran their own presidential campaigns. After losing and realising Trump is their only ticket to power, they all became worshippers, embracing crass opportunism that is now the defining character of the Republican Party. By contrast now, the Democrats appear to voters as the party that has democracy internally within its ranks. The message this will send to voters is that unlike Trump and the Republicans, it is the Democrats who are "the true patriots and public servants."
Biden endorsed his Vice-President Kamala Harris right away. After being widely unpopular, she's risen more to the spotlight in the last year, and more so after the President's implosion at the debate last month. Every liberal media outlet had, in fact been subtly lobbying for Harris in the past few weeks, even though she kept defending Biden endlessly. Still, polls were conducted on Harris, Trump and Biden. A poll by The New York Times conducted on July 9-12, showed that she was ahead of Biden to beat Trump, amongst almost all age and racial groups, except only the demographic of 65 years and older.
His endorsement doesn't mean that she automatically becomes the nominee—the party has to nominate her in the DNC. Endorsements are flooding in from prominent Democrats, but the party so far seems sincere to hold a competitive race, and a proper transparent process with other contestants. The logistics for Harris to run a successful presidential campaign is a lot easier; she has the funds that has been raised so far for the "Biden-Harris" campaign. It is highly unlikely that Kamala Harris will not be the nominee, even if there are surely better candidates out there—as that would reveal cracks within the Democratic Party, which they wouldn't want to risk against a united Republican Party. But showing that she has "earned" it through an open convention will legitimise her candidacy.
There is a lot favouring Harris, by luck mostly; she does have a shot at defeating Trump if she plays her cards right. She offers a face of change and breaks the wheel of Vietnam War-era politicians which voters are frustrated of seeing, while Trump is now the oldest presidential nominee. And policy-wise, she has the accomplishments of the Biden-Harris administration in her resume to maintain Biden's base voters. As vice-president, yet a new candidate, she could also cleverly deflect Biden's shortcomings—though that will remain to be seen, especially with Arab voters.
As exciting as this new horizon appears, this doesn't mean the Democrats are no longer in crisis. The battle against Trump is still uphill. Polls conducted by CNN show Harris is lagging behind Trump, but not as much as Biden was. If Harris is going to be the Democratic nominee, she will still need to win the key battleground states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Minnesota. While talks have already begun of her running mate, her most strategic decision to have a chance at winning, would be to have a governor from a key battleground state, such as Governor Josh Shapiro from Pennsylvania who has already endorsed Harris.
The Trump campaign will come at Harris with their full wrath and their vintage sexism. The fact that she defended Biden's mental acuity and chose loyalty over the country, will surely be a point to poke at. It's also well-known that Harris had a disturbing track record as a harsh prosecutor, especially for the Black community, and that could hurt her. But it's also worth noting that many Democrat research groups recently found—just before Biden dropped out—that she can mobilise young Black, Hispanic voters, which Biden could not. She has been vocal and precise on re-establishing reproductive rights, which are projected to galvanise the younger female voter base to vote.
At the end of the day, debates and campaigning leading up to November shape the election outcome. Trump's 90-minute speech—the longest acceptance speech in RNC history—veered off the teleprompter and showed that the xenophobia in Trump has not changed an iota. Kamala Harris, a seasoned prosecutor, is fiery at debates and as many commentators have projected, she has the ability to attack Trump and call out his lies. A lot of people feel nervous with a woman, especially of colour, running against Trump—reflecting some sort of post-traumatic stress from 2016—when Hilary Clinton lost to Trump. Gender and race do play roles in US elections, and that is undeniable. Everything is still up in the air, but just because that other woman could not, does not mean this woman cannot.
Ramisa Rob is in-charge of Geopolitical Insights at The Daily Star.
This article was published in print on July 23, 2024. Owing to the internet shutdown from the evening of July 18 to July 23, it is being uploaded online on July 24, 2024.
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