Why a political consensus on reforms is necessary
On August 5, 2024, Sheikh Hasina, who was serving as the prime minister, tendered her resignation and subsequently left the country. What initially appeared to be a relatively modest request for reform in the quota system rapidly evolved into a widespread and intense mass uprising within just a few days. This transformation underscores the deep-seated discontent simmering beneath the surface.
The mass uprising can be attributed to four major factors. First, the demand for reforming the quota system had garnered substantial support from students and the general populace. Second, persistently high inflation, shrinking job and business opportunities, and pervasive corruption created significant public dissatisfaction. Third, the lack of political freedoms, restrictions on freedom of expression, and general political oppression contributed to growing discontent among the populace. Finally, the Awami League's top leaders, in their attempt to suppress the movement, exhibited a severe lack of sensitivity and arrogance. Their use of excessive force to quell the protests resulted in an unprecedented number of fatalities among students and ordinary citizens within just a few days, further fuelling the anger and intensity of the uprising.
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On August 8, 2024, the interim government, under the leadership of Dr Muhammad Yunus, a Nobel laureate, came to power. The interim administration is expected to manage the immediate aftermath of the unrest, address the pressing issues that had fuelled the uprising, and lay the groundwork for a stable and orderly transition to a more permanent government.
The political settlement under the Hasina regime
Under Sheikh Hasina's leadership, the political landscape was characterised by a dominant party regime. Although the 2009 election was competitive, subsequent elections in 2014, 2018, and 2024 faced significant criticisms for their serious flaws. Sheikh Hasina's dominant party regime exhibited five key characteristics. First, the regime was marked by a coalition of five primary actors: the ruling political elites, influential economic elites (predominantly cronies), the civil bureaucracy, the military bureaucracy, and law enforcement agencies, all centred around Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. This coalition worked collaboratively to maintain control and influence across various sectors. Second, this coalition fostered a "stable corruption equilibrium" among corrupt ruling political elites, corrupt civil and military bureaucrats, corrupt law enforcement agencies, and dominant private sector cronies. These actors had a broad consensus on major economic policies and political agendas, particularly in managing and profiting from critical economic sectors, including large infrastructure projects. Third, the regime faced a significant legitimacy deficit, largely due to the flawed elections of 2014, 2018, and 2024. This legitimacy gap was further exacerbated by the use of force, political repression, and widespread corruption to retain power. Fourth, by focusing on infrastructure and development, the government aimed to present itself as a promoter of progress and economic growth, thereby compensating for its shortcomings in democratic governance and political legitimacy. Fifth, this regime managed to secure "unconditional" support from key regional players of geopolitics, especially India, China, and Russia, despite the regime suffering from a critical deficit in political legitimacy.
However, the regime's claim to developmental legitimacy weakened as the economy plunged into crisis from prolonged high inflation and macroeconomic instability. Finally, with the departure of Sheikh Hasina, the old political settlement was broken.
Major challenges of the interim government
The interim government is confronted with several significant challenges. First, the government should address the breakdown in law and order, ensuring security and restoring public trust across the nation. There have been reported cases of attacks on minorities, which need to be prevented. Second, the interim administration must work to restore and optimise supply chains to support businesses, ensure the availability of essential goods, and promote economic recovery. Third, with high inflation eroding purchasing power, the government must implement measures to stabilise prices. Fourth, the government needs to tackle severe macroeconomic issues, including falling foreign reserves, and sluggish growth in exports and remittances. Fifth, to ensure a smooth and credible democratic transition, reforms that uphold democratic principles and restore public confidence in governance should be instituted by fostering political dialogues and setting up transparent electoral processes. No doubt, all these challenges may intensify in the context of the changed and uncertain dynamics of the interim government's relationship with regional and global power players.
Why is a new political settlement necessary?
The interim government will not be able to function properly and address challenges if there is a fragile political settlement. The country needs a new political settlement among the key actors, currently critically important in Bangladesh's politics. They are the student movement platform, political parties, the military, the bureaucracy, and the private sector. However, these actors have differing agendas and lack a unified consensus. Also, the regional and global power players may exert their influence on these agendas.
While political parties are pressing for elections to be held as soon as possible, the student movement advocates for comprehensive reforms across political, administrative, constitutional, economic, and institutional domains to ensure a meaningful democratic transition. There is strong support for these reforms from civil society. The roles and positions of the military, bureaucracy, and private sector in this context remain ambiguous.
Without a clear consensus on the necessity of these reforms, and with the possibility of elections being held prematurely, there is a substantial risk of reverting to entrenched, undemocratic practices. The outcome of the new political settlement will largely depend on the relative strength and bargaining power of these actors. Civil society organisations have a crucial role to play in facilitating dialogue to forge a political consensus on the reform agenda, thereby contributing to a more stable and democratic political settlement. If that doesn't happen, the country could face extended periods of political instability.
Dr Selim Raihan is professor at the Department of Economics at the University of Dhaka and executive director of South Asian Network on Economic Modeling (Sanem). Email: selim.raihan@econdu.ac.bd
Views expressed in this article are the author's own.
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