In what many commentators have dubbed the most consequential federal election in Canada since the end of World War II, voters turned out in numbers not seen since 1988 and handed a decisive, though incomplete, mandate to the governing Liberal Party on April 28, 2025. It is the fourth consecutive term for the centrist Liberals, who reclaimed strength under new leadership just months after their political brand appeared on the verge of collapse.

Mark Carney, a technocrat with no prior electoral experience and a heavyweight in international finance who served as governor of both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, assumed office as Prime Minister in March 2025 after Justin Trudeau resigned following nine years in power. Carney, known for his climate-focused economic thought leadership, public service background, private sector expertise, and crisis management credentials, led his party to 169 seats and 43.7 percent of the popular vote.

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Mark Carney wins vote to replace Trudeau as Canada PM

His principal opponent, career politician Pierre Poilievre, lost in his own riding in a stunning upset but led the Conservatives to their highest vote share in the party's modern history. With 41.3 percent of the popular vote and 143 seats, the Conservatives came within reach of forming government. The electorate split almost evenly, resulting in a minority mandate for the Liberals. The campaign was shaped by contrasting resumes, competing leadership styles, and foreign pressure against the backdrop of an economic assault from the United States.

The leftist New Democratic Party, which had propped up the Liberals through formal and informal supply and confidence agreements, fell from being the third-largest party by popular vote to just seven seats. A significant portion of its voter base moved to the Liberals. So did a sizable bloc of voters from the separatist Bloc Quebecois. Many in the Francophone province of Quebec—the Bloc's stronghold—crossed ideological lines to block Poilievre from forming government. Both trends reflected a consolidation of progressive support toward the Liberals and effectively resulted in a two-horse race between them and the Conservatives, confirming this election as a referendum on leadership at an inflection point in Canadian history.

A Liberal recovery of this magnitude has surprised most. When Trudeau announced his resignation, the Liberals were polling below 20 percent, and his personal popularity had flatlined. His departure came shortly after Donald Trump returned to the American presidency and launched a tariff war, beginning with Canada and Mexico and then expanding globally. Trump mocked Trudeau as a governor, not the Prime Minister of a sovereign country, and has to date continued floating the idea of annexing Canada as the 51st American state.

In hindsight, Trudeau's resignation was well-timed. In the short period between his departure and Carney's appointment, Trudeau re-emerged as an outspoken critic of Trump, delivering pointed rebukes that quickly helped rehabilitate both his personal standing and that of the party. Then came Carney, an economist by training who led Canada's central bank through the 2008 financial crisis and guided Britain's central bank through the uncertainty of Brexit. His appointment felt not only appropriate but imperative.

Carney sought to distance himself from Trudeau. He presented himself as a fundamentally different person with a distinct vision and skill set. He did not campaign on Trudeau's record but on the promise of steadier economic management and sharper foreign policy. Still, Liberal strategists reminded Canadians that the set of circumstances Trudeau had to confront was unprecedented in scope and scale and pointed to four defining moments that shaped his legacy.

First, Trudeau successfully renegotiated a free trade agreement with the first-term Trump administration and Mexico. Second, he led Canada well through a once-in-a-century pandemic, delivering one of the lowest death rates in the developed world while rolling out emergency social assistance payments to individuals and businesses rapidly, which kept the economy afloat. Third, he managed inflationary shocks driven by global supply chain breakdowns due to the war in Ukraine. Fourth, he mounted fearless resistance to renewed attacks on Canadian sovereignty during the initial days of Trump's second term.

These reminders were meant to draw contrast, not continuity, and were deployed to push back against Conservative talking points that cast the Liberals as the sole architects of national decline. They positioned Carney as a reset, not a repeat. Poilievre had spent years reshaping the Conservative Party and was widely expected to win before Carney entered the race. His message was clear-eyed and focused on housing, crime, inflation, immigration, taxation, health care, and government spending—all issues that Canadians care deeply about and want Ottawa to act on.

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Poilievre's campaign resonated with Canadians who felt overlooked or priced out, but the momentum faltered. His tone, often combative, cast civil servants as adversaries and leaned into class-war rhetoric. His characteristically ultra-right-wing slogans echoed Trump's populism and drifted into culture-war themes, unsettling moderates and centrists. The message may have landed, but the tone cost him. He appeared polarising at a time when many voters were seeking stability. Bottom line: when Canadians wanted him to act prime ministerial, he remained an opposition leader–style attack dog.

Carney focused on the need for experienced hands at the helm of the state. He argued that Canada faced an existential threat from the United States and needed composed, subject-matter expertise to confront it. Poilievre struggled to reorient the race. His platform remained fixed on credible domestic frustrations, but he did not broaden the conversation to the extent required to reflect Canada's external vulnerabilities. Many voters saw in him a candidate with well-defined grievances, but not someone best suited to take on Trump. His appeal felt reactionary rather than forward-looking, and a plurality of voters opted for competence over confrontation.

Carney can be described as fiscally conservative and socially liberal. He has promised to cut wasteful spending, boost defense-related investments, strengthen interprovincial trade, and modernise economic policies while preserving signature Trudeau-era social policy programmes such as national childcare and dental care. He is viewed as a centrist, drawing support from pragmatic progressives and cautious conservatives alike.

But his most difficult domestic challenge may be Canada's decentralised political architecture. Carney has indicated the need to build what he calls one economy: a more unified pan-Canadian approach to productivity, energy investment, and infrastructure. Canada's political system gives provinces and municipalities wide policy and political autonomy, which brings benefits but also creates tangible coordination gaps.

Provinces like Alberta—an energy superpower where resentment toward the Liberals runs deep—present both political and economic hurdles. Carney has signaled a pivot from Trudeau's narrow focus on renewables to a broader clean energy strategy rooted in carbon capture, nuclear, hydrogen, and grid modernisation, alongside extensive investment in oil and gas infrastructure. He wants Canada to be an energy-dominant superpower committed to decarbonisation while pursuing cleaner non-renewable options, but that goal depends on collaboration. He will need to work much better than his predecessors ever did with premiers, mayors, and Indigenous governments.

Carney has declared that the old Canada–United States special relationship, defined in the pre-Trump era by mutual trust, strategic cooperation, trade, and commerce, is now null and void. He has pledged to rebuild Canada's economic independence by diversifying international trade partnerships and reducing reliance on American markets. This posture has earned respect but will require a set of very ambitious, rapid, and creative policies backed by strong follow-through.

At home, the demands are just as intense. Housing is unattainable for millions. Healthcare systems remain under acute strain. Immigration continues to outpace infrastructure, workforce planning, and provincial coordination. Federal commitments have outstripped federal performance. Carney received a strong mandate with the task of restoring public trust in institutions—but without years of political apprenticeship to draw on.

Expectations are high, and patience may be low, even though most Canadians understand that the next few years will be harder, not easier, with Trump's threats set in motion. Carney's outsider status in a traditional political sense, once framed as a vulnerability, proved to be an electoral strength. He came across as disciplined and untouched by years of partisan infighting. But in a minority parliament, those qualities will be tested. Arithmetic will shape the agenda. Cooperation will be necessary. Trump will force Carney to improvise. Fractures in the electorate will demand repair.

This election stamped, at least for now, Canada's departure from a growing global trend. While several liberal democracies and hybrid regimes veer toward authoritarianism and the far right, Canadians chose the political centre and capability over chaos. The result was neither celebratory nor revolutionary. It was a call for order in a volatile world, which is quintessentially a Canadian trait, and one buttressed by institutional resilience and a strategically minded electorate. Carney steps into office without a blank cheque, but with a clear instruction to deliver—and deliver quickly.

The Liberal win was less about the party and more about Carney. Canadians are banking on the former central banker because they believe he is the right man to meet the moment the country finds itself in—with the right set of skills and the right temperament. Bigger picture: Trump and his antics, combined with Poilievre's inability to adapt to the country's mood, helped deliver Carney's victory.

Mir Aftabuddin Ahmed is a public policy columnist. He can be reached at [email protected]. Views expressed in this article are the author's own.

Views expressed in this article are the author's own. 

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