Living within planetary boundaries

THIS year, New York City had the coldest winter in decades. The US National Weather Service informed that in February 2015 the average temperature was 24.1 degrees Fahrenheit, which is the highest in 80 years. In February 1934, NYC felt a temperature of 19.9 degrees. After the arctic weather, as the thermometre rises the city has already started to feel the flavour of the spring. So much so that some have even brought out their summer clothes enthusiastically though the possibility of fresh snow in March is not ruled out yet. But summer has its own pitfalls. True, people cannot wait for the blooming trees and sunny beaches. However, scorching and prolonged heat in recent years has also dried the soil, brought drought and killed corn and soybean crops in some parts of the country. Outbreaks of several tornados and disasters such as Superstorm Sandy are manifestations of the oppressiveness of extreme weather events that pose long-term risks to the country.

This also reminds us of the consequence of climate change, a situation which occurs through human activities such as burning of fossil fuels and destruction of forests. We burn primary energy such as coal, oil and natural gas for driving our cars, heating or cooling our buildings, generating electricity, manufacturing products and so on. This produces carbon dioxide, a major component of the greenhouse gas. We have been cautioned by scientists time and again about the increased global average surface temperature due to human induced carbon emissions into the atmosphere. 

Future risks of climate change over the next few decades and in the second half of the 21st century and beyond, outlined by the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, look daunting and depressing. Some of these impacts would include risk of death, injury, ill-health, disrupted livelihoods, coastal flooding and sea level rise. This will also result in breakdown of infrastructure networks and critical services such as electricity, water supply, health and emergency services. We will face the risk of mortality and morbidity, risk of food insecurity and the breakdown of food systems, drought, flooding and precipitation. Countries spread over Asia, Africa, North America, South America, Europe, Australia and Antarctica will feel the steam of extreme climate situation in one way or the other. Drought in Brazil, flooding in China, heat waves in Australia and cyclones in Bangladesh—are all human caused natural disasters that threaten the development efforts of these countries. Some are paying for their own misdeeds of reckless growth while others are simply the victims of that process.

But humanity does not know how and where to stop. The invention of the steam engine in the seventeenth century propelled the transportation system. This was a moment of transformation in human history. Technology played an important role during the industrial revolution, which is considered to be an unprecedented juncture of humanity. Looking at present day transportation and industrialisation patterns one wonders how technological and economic progress has also created some of the worst encumbrances in human civilisation. Within less than three centuries, global carbon dioxide concentration has increased so rapidly that by the middle of this century it will be doubled compared to the pre-industrial period. 

Undeniably, there has been diffusion of economic growth. So has been carbon emission. Even if emission of greenhouse gases is totally stopped at this very moment the average temperature will continue to rise because of the past emission pattern. Most of this emission is done by developed and developing countries. Only three countries, such as China, the USA and India, are responsible for an astonishing 44% of all greenhouse gas emissions. On the other hand, a least developed country but one of the worst impacted countries, Bangladesh emits only 0.14% of total global emission. 

Scientists say that humanity is leaving the safe operating conditions of the planet. If the planetary boundaries are exceeded the existence of humanity will be in real danger. Economists have suggested a sustainable development path. Growth which is based on fossil fuel and natural resources is not sustainable. Therefore, international agreements must be reached for reducing emissions by 25% to 40% by 2020 to have a chance to avoid catastrophic climate change. These pledges have to be compounded with strong legal framework and public finance. 

In November last year, the biggest emitter China pledged to cap its carbon emission by 2030 or even earlier while the second largest emitter the USA has committed to bring its emission by 26%-28% below 2005 level by 2025. Both of these commitments are huge in terms of breadth and difficult in terms of implementation. China will have to do massive investment on clean energies including nuclear, wind, solar and other zero-emission generating capacity. For the USA, it will require the country to double its effort towards reducing carbon emission during 2020 - 2025 from that of 2005 to 2020. India is yet to make any commitments, but emphasised on the adoption of energy efficient measures and investment in renewable energy. The EU has pledged an emission reduction of 40% by 2030. 

But global negotiations aimed at slowing the emission level have yielded little progress so far. Climate negotiations have always been chaotic and fraught with disagreements. The adoption of a climate agreement has proved to be elusive since 1992 when the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change was established. Major milestones of climate negotiations were closed without any outcome. Kyoto Protocol was stillborn and the Copenhagen climate convention was a debacle. Now if the Paris climate conference in December fails to adopt an agreement no one will believe this process anymore.

As I sign off this column an encouraging news item in the New York Times struck my attention. According to the International Energy Agency, carbon dioxide emissions from global energy producers have not increased during 2013-2014 even though there was economic growth. Critics have noted that this does not tell much since one has to look at the long-term trend of emissions rather than just one year. To me it carries a lot of significance and proves that appropriate technology based on renewable energy is the solution to the problem of climate change. This of course, will gain a moral boost if an agreement is reached in Paris towards low carbon emissions. 

The writer is Research Director at CPD. Currently a Visiting Scholar at the Earth Institute, Columbia University, New York.