Regional efforts needed to end Afghanistan’s woes

The Islamic State-Khorasan Province (IS-K) is emerging as a major threat to peace in Afghanistan, proving the Taliban's previous judgement of their capabilities wrong. Ever since the IS-K was established in 2015—when they were at the height of power in Syria and Iraq—the offshoot of the international terror network has carried out constant attacks across Afghanistan. One would remember the horrific shooting at a maternity ward in Kabul in 2020, when fighters suspected to be members of IS-K shot at expecting mothers, nurses, and doctors. Twenty-four people, including mothers and newborn children, were killed.

Over time, the IS-K has carried out many daring attacks on the previous Afghan government and politicians, local and international security forces (including the US and NATO personnel), international humanitarian agencies and their personnel, minority groups, and the Taliban, among others.

More recently, the IS-K has claimed two suicide bombings at Shia mosques on two Fridays in a row. The first of these two suicide attacks, targeting Friday prayers, was orchestrated at Said Abad Mosque in Kunduz province in northeast Afghanistan, on October 8. More than 50 worshippers were killed in the suicide attack, and hundreds were injured. It was the third attack on a religious institution that week. The mosque attack, along with the recent transgressions of the IS-K, raised concerns among the Afghans, the ruling Taliban, and the United Nations; UN Secretary-General António Guterres said it was part of a "disturbing pattern of violence."

The latest suicide attack, on October 15, only added to the apprehensions of the people. This attack was carried out at a packed mosque in the Taliban stronghold of Kandahar. At least 65 worshippers were killed, while hundreds were injured. The UN secretary-general called the attack "despicable."

An attack at the heart of the Taliban's power centre—the southern city of Kandahar—sends them a very alarming signal: they are perhaps no longer capable of safeguarding their own stronghold. While the world is still coming to terms with the fact that the US had to make a botched exit from Afghanistan after nearly 20 years of occupation—thanks to its own premature Afghanistan strategy and mismanagement of resources—and that an extremist group is now ruling the country again, the emergence of IS-K bodes ominous portents for the world community.

Although the Taliban has been dismissive about the capacity and strength of the IS-K in the past, they are now realising the mistake of undermining the IS offshoot. After the Kunduz attack, a Taliban spokesman tweeted, "This afternoon, an explosion took place in a mosque of our Shiite compatriots… a number of our compatriots were martyred and wounded." He suggested that the Taliban were investigating the bombing. There were also talks of strengthening security at the religious institutions in the Shia dominated areas. Despite that, the Kandahar attack took place—under the very nose of the Taliban.

The Nangarhar and Kunar-based IS-K, being an offshoot of the Islamic State, follow their belief systems. The IS-K fighters include hard-line jihadists from Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, and also include some former members of the Taliban, who harbour a more extremist worldview.

While IS-K fighters are now challenging the Taliban and trying to dent their image through these atrocious attacks, they are unlikely to stop at this. The IS-K—as per the ideology of the IS—is likely to target establishing a caliphate in the region through destabilising regional peace and order. Since many of these fighters are from Pakistan and Uzbekistan, they are also likely to have a good understanding of these countries, which they can use to their advantage as and when required.

Jason M Blazakis, professor at Middlebury Institute of International Studies, in an article on Defenseone.com, suggested that while the Taliban was focused on local victory, "ISIS still wants the world." He further added, "ISIS-K also believes that al-Qaeda and the Taliban are too locally focused and disinterested in establishing a global caliphate… al-Qaeda was always opposed to creating a global caliphate too quickly, citing the need to govern successfully by tending to the masses. ISIS instead bet on its ability to metastasise globally and for a time eclipsed the already-diminished al-Qaeda within jihadist circles."

However, to what extent the Taliban and al-Qaeda will be able to keep IS-K at bay remains to be seen. Crushing the IS-K would be a difficult task for any actor—local or foreign. Nangarhar and Kunar are mountainous and semi-mountainous terrains and provide ample opportunities for cover. And with the constrained resources, the Taliban is stuck between a rock and a hard place with regard to eliminating the threat of IS-K.

Another challenge that the Taliban face is internal strife between the various factions within the organisation. There are radical, extremist elements within them, many of whom are not happy with the more moderate attitude of the Taliban—those who believe in the old dogmas and feel that the Taliban are not hard-line enough. To these factions, IS-K might look like just the right association.

The IS-K's possible affiliation with the powerful Haqqani network, with whom the Taliban are also strongly connected, also makes it difficult for them to go after the IS-K. A BBC report quoted Asia Pacific Foundation's Dr Sajjan Gohel as saying that "several major attacks between 2019 and 2021 involved collaboration between IS-K, the Taliban's Haqqani network and other terror groups based in Pakistan."

The Haqqani network is currently in charge of internal security in Afghanistan. Its influence with the Taliban and their prominent roles in the government have made regional and global players uneasy about the ability of the Taliban to deliver on its promise of security.

The IS-K—known for its notorious ambitions, radical ideologies, and unpredictable actions— had even unnerved the US security forces with the atrocious Kabul airport attack, which pushed the US forces to further hasten their evacuation. The IS-K is not a force to be trifled with. These jihadists are blood-thirsty and would do anything to achieve their goals. This terrorist outfit of Islamic State should be stopped in its tracks now, before they muster more support and resources to emerge as a stronger malicious force than it already is.

The IS-K is not just Afghanistan's problem; it is the problem for the region. The regional players now need to take a good, hard look at the situation in Afghanistan, and take concerted and comprehensive measures to stop the IS-K from spreading its wings further. A distraught and vulnerable neighbour being forced to harbour terrorist elements is not a desirable geopolitical scenario for anyone.

Tasneem Tayeb is a columnist for The Daily Star.

Her Twitter handle is @tasneem_tayeb