The G7 summit has been wrapped up with a show of harmony among its member states where none of the participating states raised the concern over the danger of the "Thucydides Trap",between the US and China, a major cause of the anarchy in the international system, today. Yet, this summit came into light due to President Trump's willingness to bring back President Putin into G7, and host the next summit in his Florida based resort in the US. Putin was expelled from G7 and has been isolated from various global forums after the Russian seizure of Crimea in 2014. However, without any discord, the meeting condemned the Brazilian President Bolsonaro because of the wild fire in the Amazon rainforest, and pledged USD 22 million, which Brazil rejected at first, but accepted later under the condition that Brazil would decide how to use it.

Meanwhile, unsurprisingly Trump skipped the session on environment and climate change. Perhaps, Trump is unaware of the economic cost of climate change which alone is more than USD 2.4 trillion per year globally, whereas the human cost and that of several transnational issues combined is beyond imagination.

Modern day rivalry

The world is again witnessing the modern day bi-polarity between the US and China. However, the US-China rivalry today differs from that of US-Soviet in the past and is largely focused on the virtual world, space, sea, technology and trade. Another distinct feature of modern day bi-polarity is that China has been engaged in soft power diplomacy, international cooperation, development, economy and innovative technology; while the US still relies on coercive diplomacy ("Carrots and Sticks"), military might and nuclear threats.

The way US is creating a trade war by increasing tariffs and blacklisting tech giants like Huawei will gradually push the US behind and ultimately create greater opportunity for China to build its larger sphere in tech and trade infrastructure. Meanwhile, President Xi has urged, "We all need to work together to avoid the 'Thucydides Trap'—destructive tensions between an emerging power and established powers … Our aim is to foster a new model of major country relations."

The regional rivalry between India and Pakistan (in South Asia), between Iran and Saudi Arabia (in the Middle East), between China and Japan (in East Asia), between North and South Korea (in the Korean Peninsula) and between South Korea and Japan (in East Asia) are making regional systems anarchic today.

"Politico-diplomatic strategies"

The heavy presence of US-alliance forces in the Gulf region, Afghanistan, South Korea, Iraq is a reason for continuous worry. The US recognising Jerusalem as Israel's capital is a clear sign of aggression against small states. Conflict between Israel and Palestine is still a potential threat to peace and stability in the Middle East. The Indo-Pak dispute over Kashmir is another blistering issue in South Asia. Conflict in Syria and the respective backing by nuclear powers is creating huge havoc around the world. Nuke and drone threats one over another by the US and Iran, Mother of All Bombs (MOAB) and Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) tests by North Korea, and the topical US-Iran or UK-Iran power crunch are making this world less safe and more anarchic.

Meanwhile, President Trump acknowledged the opposition leader as the president of Venezuela, and dozens of the US allies welcomed this decision. Trump openly advocated for his favourite Boris Johnson as a deserving British Prime Minister even before the election. Yet, he wants (or does not want) regime change in Iran, Syria, Turkey, Venezuela, Cuba and Hong Kong. He has been receiving beautiful letters from his amazing new friend Kim Jong Un (who was turned into a "terrific friend" after being tagged as a "terrible enemy"). The US had expressed severe discord when Tibet was integrated with China meanwhile the US and most of its allies remain silent when India annexed Sikkim, and Kashmir.

The UK and France were worried about the unification of Germany in spite of the UK, France and Germany being close allies. The US had fought with China and the Soviet Union against Germany and Japan in WW-I and II, but it allied with West Germany and Japan against China and the Soviet Union during the Cold War. All these "politico-diplomatic strategies" reflect the states' containment within alliances and contentment on global anarchy.

Accordingly, terrorist organisations are helping to make the international system anarchic. The Boko Haram, a Nigeria-based Islamic extremist group known as the world's deadliest terrorist organisation, has killed more than 20,000; kidnapped hundreds of thousands; and displaced more than 2.3 million people. Likewise, the IS, Mujaheedin, Lashkar-i-Taiba and others are adding to the insecurity of people all around the world.

Right after the 9/11 attack, the US declared a global "war on terror", where Washington called on other states to join in the fight against terrorism asserting that "either you are with us, or you are with the terrorists". Samuel P Huntington, in The Clash of Civilizations, remarked that "Nation states will remain the most powerful actors in world affairs, but the principal conflicts of global politics will occur between nations and groups of different civilizations. The clash of civilizations will dominate global politics. The fault lines between civilisations will be the battle lines of the future", which remains relevant after 9/11 for Islam-Christian conflict.

The Indo-Pak conflict is mostly revolving around territorial disputes followed by Hindu-Muslim issues. Meanwhile, India has published the final list of NRC in Assam, which has made 1.9 million people (mostly minority Muslims) stateless and there is genuine concern that they might be deported to Bangladesh, which is already hosting nearly one million Rohingya refugees displaced from Myanmar. This unprecedented mass movement of people would cause not only humanitarian crisis, but also could fuel religious and cultural disharmony.

Collaborative action

The world is witnessing the domination of religion over religion, culture over culture, human over human and nation over nation. It is still experiencing the legacy of the cold war such as military occupation, aggression, interference in the internal affairs of states, unfair tariffs or sanctions inconsistent with international law. Consequently, global anarchy is more anarchic today with the concealed interest under the 'Thucydides Trap'.

In addition, numerous transnational issues such as terrorism, war, crimes, financial issues, climate change, economic stability, energy and food security, intellectual property rights, cyber security, nuclear and AI threats, maritime security, poverty and pandemics among others are wreaking havoc in the world. Nonetheless, nation-states require collaborative and cooperative action among governments, international organisations, corporations, universities, NGOs, think tanks and creative individuals to avoid the "Thucydides Trap" and address the rising global anarchy.

GP Acharya is a researcher and analyst based in Kathmandu, Nepal.

His Twitter handle is: @GPAthinker