President Donald Trump is smart. He wants to pull off economic, strategic, and political interests on three seemingly unrelated fronts—Gaza, Ukraine, and Greenland (GUG)—all at once. While these territories may appear disparate, a closer examination reveals common threads that suggest a broader US worldview, which Trump and its dominant elites represent, driven by strategic, military, and political goals. Unlike his predecessor, Trump has shown an inclination to avoid direct military conflicts while seeking to profit from both war-like situations and times of peace.

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One of the most striking commonalities among Trump's GUG targets is the prospect of economic and strategic gains, particularly through access to valuable natural resources, such as rare earth elements (REE). These critical minerals are used in almost every piece of advanced technology: semiconductors, mobile phones, computers, tablets, computer screens, hard drives, batteries, wind turbines, fuel cells, MRI machines, X-ray machines, missiles, and fighter jets. The list is endless. REEs are essential for today's economy; without them, the world would come to a grinding stop.

China became the dominant global producer of REEs in the 1980s after the US industry declined due to stricter regulations. It strategically invested in REE technology and production, becoming the leading nation in controlling intellectual property rights and processing facilities. Consequently, all existing REE mines outside China, save for a few exceptions, export raw materials to China for processing and value addition. Beijing thus has a chokehold over Washington, which Trump wants to break, for which securing alternative REE sources is essential.

It's no wonder that Greenland's enormous deposits of REEs are on all big players' radars, especially Washington's. Securing Greenland's REE mines could give the US a strategic advantage in the highly competitive race for these critical raw materials. This is all the more critical for Washington because some Greenlandic politicians consider Chinese investments an opportunity for job creation, economic development, and even a stepping stone to independence from Denmark.

Trump's Greenland bid is also about strengthening a strategic military base. The existing US Pituffik Space Base—previously known as Thule Air Base until early 2023—is vital for US military operations in the Arctic, and expanding US influence there would help counteract Russian ambitions. With its melting ice caps and emerging trade routes, the Arctic presents a new frontier for military and economic interests, making Greenland a valuable asset for Washington in countering China and Russia.

As for Gaza, the eastern Mediterranean region has become the focus of exploration for natural gas deposits—resources that hold significant economic promise for Israel and US interests in energy security. Ensuring access to these resources amid geopolitical tensions may be pivotal to Washington's strategic calculations.

Gaza will also fit nicely into Washington's expanding military network, offering a secure base to help bolster its strategic influence across the Middle East. This will give Washington greater oversight over a volatile area, allowing it to counter hostile regional powers and receive crucial military support from a well-supplied base.

The Gaza plan may also be a mere negotiating tactic. Still, it has strengthened the ultra-nationalist Jewish supporters of both Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, strengthening their positions in the respective domestic fronts. However, it must be noted that Trump's Gaza rhetoric has raised legal, moral, ethical, and political questions. History shows that plans to take over hostile territories backfired and ended up in catastrophic consequences, as seen in Iraq and Afghanistan. Nonetheless, it will enhance Trump's stature as a dealmaker among his supporters.

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Like Greenland, Ukraine is also rich in REEs, with 22 of 34 rare earth deposits. Trump's proposed plan involves scooping up $500 billion worth of these REEs in exchange for brokering a peace deal, highlighting a transactional view of foreign policy, where US interests dominate negotiations. Besides, Ukraine plays a crucial role in the global energy landscape as a key transit country for natural gas from Russia to Europe. Control over Ukraine translates into substantial economic leverage in European energy markets. Trump left European leaders scratching their heads by making a dramatic shift in US strategy as he poured cold water on Kyiv's wishes to join NATO and agreed to negotiate a settlement with Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the war.

Nonetheless, Washington will remain an important geopolitical player in this crucial region. Ukraine is edging towards becoming the ground for another "forever war" draining billions of dollars from Washington's coffers, which the real estate tycoon will hate to see. His business instincts followed a path of promptly ending it and securing the best possible deal, which, in this case, involved his aforementioned claim on Ukraine's REEs. This would nicely supplement Greenlandic supplies to break free from Beijing's chokehold. The deal will also ensure Washington's continued influence over Kyiv, which has been the plan since the 1998 book The Grand Chessboard by President Jimmy Carter's national security adviser, Zbigniew Brzezinski.

Even a partial success of Trump's GUG bid would highlight his domestic and international standing. By proposing territorial takeovers or enhanced US involvement, Trump positioned himself as a decisive US leader with a global vision, however flawed, capable of navigating complex geopolitical landscapes. Crafting a narrative of US intervention as a stabilising force could redirect public attention from domestic issues to the international arena, reinforcing a nationalistic agenda that will resonate with many voters. How far will Trump go to achieve his ambitions?

Dr Sayeed Ahmed is a consulting engineer and the CEO of Bayside Analytix, a technology-focused strategy and management consulting organisation.

Views expressed in this article are the author's own.

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