There is a broad indication that three powers (India, China, and Russia) are supporting the government's stance on how they are approaching the election. Not interfering with a state is an eyewash; when needed, powerful countries often do it. India has given its support to the government; Awami League leaders have echoed it previously. Now, India has clarified its position. China and Russia will support the current regime, considering their own government systems, and they don't bother about democracy in other countries as well. The United States has been vocal. The European Union is not as vocal, but it doesn't mean they are not concerned about the democratic process in Bangladesh.

Our problem is that our economy is very frail. Whenever we export any product, we remain obedient to our importers. Surprisingly, whenever we import, we stay servile to the exporters; no other country does the same thing. Our market is the US, EU and Canada, but we are now just ignoring their considerations. I have doubts as to whether it would be wise in the long run the way we are ignoring their calls. But politicians never think for the long run; instead, they think about how they can remain in power or come to power. So, for the Awami League, it is important for them to remain in power, and they will go for that by any means.

It seems the election will be held on time, as planned. The ruling party has the police and administration, and a section of voters—especially Awami League leaders and their supporters—will cast their votes, but a free and fair election will not happen. The EC also knows that it cannot conduct what is supposed to be a free and fair election. Violence may not occur if law enforcers remain active, but the turnout may be insignificant. Although how the EC and the government will showcase numbers, that would be their concern. I still have a hunch that we will have problems mostly with the economy, and the people of the country will suffer from the outcome.

M Touhid Hossain is former foreign secretary of Bangladesh. 

Views expressed in this comment are the author's own.

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