The Annual Primary School Census (APSC) 2021 shows that enrolment in primary schools came down in 2021 from the previous year by almost 1.5 million, while the number of teachers decreased by over 83,000. In addition, over 14,000 primary schools were shut down. Data gathered in the second quarter of 2021 showed some of the impacts after Covid-19 forced school closure in March 2020, which continued until September 2021. The findings have been reported in the media, but the report itself is yet to be formally published.

The numbers collected through questionnaires filled in by head teachers, though subjected to verification, are likely to be an underestimate, especially for non-government schools. The reported number of private kindergarten schools is mentioned as 28,193 in 2021 (with 3.3 million students out of a total of 20.1 million at the primary level). Iqbal Bahar Chowdhury, the head of Bangladesh Kindergarten School and College Oikya Parishad, claimed that there were 60,000 kindergarten schools in 2020, of which about 20,000 were closed by 2021, and the remainder were in "bad shape" financially. 

The report, pertaining only to primary schools, depicted the situation at the end of the first year of the pandemic. We don't have a full picture of the impact of continuing school closure into the second year, and its impact at the secondary and tertiary levels.

Schools re-opened in mid-September with limited hours and on alternate days for different classes to maintain health and safety rules. Then, there was another month-long shutdown in January-February this year. Official data show that some 40 percent of the primary-level students went to private and NGO-run schools outside the domain of the government primary school system (not counting the Qawmi madrasas). The authorities cannot ignore the educational plight and well-being of all these children.

Various surveys by Education Watch and others as well as anecdotal evidence show that the combined health, economic and mental well-being effects of the pandemic on children, their families and their teachers have made the former vulnerable in multiple ways. Incidence of child labour has increased, the number of early marriage of girls has shot up, more children are subject to child abuse and violence in family, and a proportion of students have moved to Qawmi madrasas for economic reasons.

Children are afraid and anxious about the uncertainty they face. All the vulnerabilities of the education system that existed before the pandemic have been magnified by it, affecting more children more severely.

Missing children in schools, absent teachers and shuttered schools are only part of a much larger problem of learning loss and not being ready to learn as schools re-open for the majority among those children who are fortunate to be in school. Let's also not forget that even before the pandemic, the majority of students, according to assessments made under government auspices, could not read and count at a basic level after five years of primary education.

Students essentially skipping two school years have been promoted to the next grade. The education authorities are keen to go back to the normal school routine as soon as possible. There is a tendency among the authorities to deny or underplay the massive learning loss that has occurred. This cannot be dismissed as hyperbolic.

Warnings have been sounded by Unesco, Unicef, World Bank and the international education community of the danger in low-income countries. Economics Nobel Laureate Abhijit Banerjee spoke about learning loss as a global threat. He says, "Not measuring learning losses and [not] taking steps to integrate children back into the system will be a 'recipe for disaster'" (The New Indian Express).

The Education Watch 2021 findings, expected to be made public shortly, do provide signs of a looming learning crisis. The cumulative learning loss and the inability to acquire basic competencies (including literacy and numeracy) make the majority of students unprepared to follow their new grade-level lessons. A new generation of students may grow up with permanent learning handicaps.

It is, therefore, necessary to recognise the depth of the problem and take urgent remedial actions. These should include the following:

First, the aim of going back to the normal school routine as soon as possible is totally understandable, but it has to be based on acceptance that there has been massive learning loss after children skipped two years of schooling and were auto-promoted by two grades. The majority of them are not ready for their normal lessons and exam routine.

Second, a two-year learning recovery plan mast be developed and implemented urgently.

Third, the learning recovery plan with its key elements must be the main focus of the work of the education authorities for the next two years. The key elements should include: 1) A grade-wise core skills assessment (Bangla and maths at the primary level, and Bangla, English, maths and science at the secondary level) undertaken in each school rapidly and with simple tools; 2) Assessing and grouping students by skill levels to bring them up to minimum grade-level competency within a year; 3) Developing simple assessment tools to be used in each school and preparing teaching guides and content for remedial lessons by ability groups; and 4) Supporting teachers and schools to carry out the assessment and remedial learning activities.

Fourth, give priority to the recovery and remedial programme by temporarily putting on hold longer-term and other routine activities as much as possible. NCTB, NAPE, NAEM, the Directorates and Education Boards need to give their full attention to the recovery plan. The curriculum reform initiative may be delayed, which will actually benefit from the experience of a successful implementation of the recovery plan.

Fifth, working groups should be formed in each upazila and union for primary and secondary education involving education personnel, local government, education NGOs, and teachers' organisations to carry out the recovery and remedial plan. One important task would be to bring back and keep in school those who have faltered.

Finally, necessary funding must be provided in the education budget of the 22-23 fiscal year for the recovery and remedial plan. Support should be available to government and non-government schools based on local assessment of their needs through the primary and secondary education working groups.

The FY 22-23 budget should be seized as an opportunity to undo or prevent (further) damage in education. It should include funds for teachers' incentives, school budget support, and working with NGOs, especially on recruiting and supporting voluntary para- teachers. A reasonable formula should be devised to support non-government schools outside the MPO net, working with the local working groups. As regards the report, the primary education authorities deserve praise for preparing it. An update is needed now, and similar exercises should be undertaken for secondary and tertiary levels.

Dr Manzoor Ahmed is professor emeritus at Brac University, chair of Bangladesh ECD Network, and vice-chair of CAMPE. The views expressed are his own.