Since the very birth of the nation, Myanmar has been dependent on China. Therefore, Chinese influence in Myanmar will remain despite a junta existing. China shares the largest border with the country, is the biggest trading partner and has also been a partner for Myanmar in dire times. We must always remember this context.

Let's come down to the second aspect, which is India. What was India's relation? British India occupied places in Myanmar, in a sense. During that time, it was the Indians who were running Myanmar. Yangon was made by the British. So there were many Indians who lived in Myanmar and were later expelled from the country in the 1950s. The relationship between India and Myanmar has never been that great.

Now let's talk about us. When Pakistan was formed in 1947, Rakhine wanted to come with Pakistan. And they had a leader, who was known as the "Rakhine Jinnah." But Pakistan then declined their request for existent technicalities.

The Tatmadaw's greatest fear is Bangladesh, and the reason is it's a Muslim majority country. They always use refererence of Malaysia, Brunei and Indonesia, that these were countries that did not have a Muslim majority but do now. Bangladesh is overpopulated and will make Myanmar a Muslim majority country. And therefore, the Rohingya are its agents. This is their psyche.

In the present scenario, we have unfortunately failed in our diplomacy. Not just at present, but even earlier. Even after liberation, we haven't done much. Now, what do we do?

In my opinion, by this year, Rakhine will fall. If you look at the map, the areas starting from Paletwa to Mrauk U have been taken over. If you've seen the news, you'll see that the Myanmar authority has demolished two bridges, so that the Arakan Army doesn't come to Sittwe. But as per my estimation, by the end of this year, the whole of Rakhine would be taken over.

So what should Bangladesh do? I think we cannot deal with this situation through a single stream. The biggest mistake in our diplomacy was probably the bilateral approach that we took with Myanmar. Tatmadaw is in a very bad shape because they kept 18,000 troops just for Naypyidaw and Section 144 has been announced. On top of that, they have ordered compulsory military service. So we should also consider a different track for diplomacy, and we must go and try to connect with the people who in future will be calling the shots, which are the NUG and the Arakan Army. Our foreign ministry knows how to best deal with that.

We need to prepare for backup diplomacy with some kind of show of force, otherwise you can't resolve this issue. And we have to work towards making the Arakan Army believe that the Rohingya are their people. They have mentioned in one of their communications that they recognise them as Arakan Muslims, not Rohingya.

Brig Gen (retd) Dr M Sakhawat Hussain is former election commissioner of Bangladesh, and senior fellow at the South Asian Institute of Policy and Governance (SIPG), North South University (NSU).

Views expressed in this article are the author's own. 

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