Geopolitics rewritten: The Arakan Army’s unprecedented rise
The rise of the Arakan Army (AA) in Myanmar's Rakhine State marks a historic shift in South and Southeast Asian geopolitics, redefining regional power and security. Between October and December 2024, the AA seized over 80 percent of Rakhine State, including its 271 km border with Bangladesh—a rare instance of a non-state actor controlling an international border. The seizure of the regime's Western Command headquarters in Ann town, after the fall of Maungdaw, represents a territorial as well as strategic reshuffling that undermines the military junta's grip on power and raises fundamental issues for the region.
The shifting power dynamics
For all latest news, follow The Daily Star's Google News channel. After decades of centralised military control, the AA has shifted Rakhine's power dynamics, emerging as the de facto authority. In particular, the past 15 to 16 months have seen the AA transform dramatically, seizing dozens of townships and army outposts, culminating in the seizing of Western Command headquarters in Ann town—marking a serious blow to the legitimacy of the military junta.
There are various reasons behind the group's success. Its military capabilities have increased tremendously and it can now mount effective operations against well-entrenched military positions. However, the AA has shown a level of military sophistication beyond that of many other armed organisations in Myanmar, proving its ability to capture and hold territory. Its capability to coordinate operations with allies in the Three Brotherhood Alliance was particularly evident as these forces secured important areas on multiple fronts.
Politically, the AA, as the United League of Arakan's (ULA) military wing, has established parallel governance in the areas it controls. It demonstrates a deep understanding of the need to synthesise military victories with political legitimacy, as seen in its efforts to weave a governance framework that includes both Buddhist Rakhine and Muslim populations. The junta's loss of control in Rakhine State is the second regional military command to fall under the control of ethnic rebels in five months. The loss of the Western Command headquarters alone could signal the start of a domino effect, further weakening the military's grip on power.
The Rohingya question
With more than one million Rohingya currently in Bangladesh, the issue of their return and future status under AA control has become a major regional concern. The AA leadership—particularly through its political wing, the ULA—has outlined a vision of Rakhine that includes both Buddhist and Muslim populations, such as the Rohingya. This marks a significant departure from Myanmar's historically exclusionary stance. However, this position must be viewed in the context of the AA's historically troubled relationship with the Rohingya community, whatever form that relationship has taken in the past.
Complicating matters are reports that both the AA and the Myanmar military recruit Rohingya for their respective causes. This exploitation of the vulnerable community raises questions about the AA's true commitment to Rohingya rights and inclusion. Some analysts argue that elements of the AA's vision of an "Arakan Dream" are influenced by Burmese nationalist discourse, which could potentially erase evidence of the Rohingya's presence.
The refugee crisis remains a major regional challenge, particularly for Bangladesh, which now hosts the bulk of Rohingya refugees. The AA's new control over the border region introduces new variables into potential repatriation efforts. While the AA's claimed willingness to accept Rohingya return offers some hope, any repatriation programme would face significant challenges without guarantees of citizenship rights, security, and economic integration.
The great power game
With its control over Rakhine State, the AA has introduced a new dimension to the great power contest between China and India in the region. Rakhine is vital to China's $1.5 billion investment in oil and gas pipelines to Kunming and its Belt and Road Initiative in the region. These investments, including a $2.5 billion oil and gas pipeline project, a $7.3 billion port project at Kyaukphyu, and a $2.7 billion special economic zone (SEZ), are critical for reducing China's dependence on energy imports via the Malacca Strait.
In retrospect, China has enjoyed a close relationship with Myanmar's military junta and is its principal trade partner and biggest weapons supplier, but the ground reality has compelled it to move with a more nuanced attitude. Recent developments show that Chinese officials have been having talks with the AA's allies in an attempt to broker ceasefires, indicating a pragmatic accommodation with shifting relative power.
India's strategic interests in the region are equally significant but differ in focus. The Kaladan Multi-Modal Transport and Transit Project (KMTTP) represents India's major strategic investment in establishing connectivity between Kolkata, Sittwe port, and India's northeastern states via Mizoram. India's Act East policy has traditionally relied on ties with Myanmar's military but is now compelled to consider engaging with the AA to safeguard its strategic interests in the face of shifting ground realities.
Bangladesh's strategic dilemma
With the AA in control of their shared 271-kilometer border, Bangladesh faces an unprecedented diplomatic and security challenge. Over the past few months, Bangladeshi security experts and former diplomats have increasingly called for engagement with the AA, given the new reality on the ground. Former defence attaché to Myanmar, Major General (Retd) Md Shahidul Haque, stated that engagement with the AA would be a "win-win situation" for Bangladesh, both from security and economic perspectives. This perspective reflects a growing sense within Bangladesh's security establishment that traditional diplomatic approaches may need reconsideration.
Nevertheless, Bangladesh's foreign ministry spokesperson Mohammed Rafiqul Alam and others have reiterated the country's official position of not working with non-state actors, stating that relevant ministry departments would take appropriate action. While engagement with the AA could address border security concerns and facilitate Rohingya repatriation, it might also complicate Bangladesh's relations with Myanmar's central government and other regional powers.
The battle for infrastructure control
The Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project in India has been thrown off its course due to the changing security landscape. How the group stands in respect to this project will play an important role in India's strategic position in the region. Because of the AA's influence over maritime traffic and potential development projects in the Bay of Bengal coastline, its position along the Bay of Bengal shoreline is vital.
Also, the case of Kyaukphyu is particularly evident as the terminus for China's strategic oil and gas pipelines. Security expert Ye Myo Hein of the US Institute of Peace said the AA theoretically could launch a military campaign to seize Kyaukphyu, it appears to be employing a more calculated strategy, leveraging its control as a bargaining chip in broader regional negotiations.
The rise of the AA in Rakhine State demonstrates that non-state actors can reshape regional dynamics in ways that compel traditional power structures to adapt. It is worth recalling that the regional security architecture is not static, but evolves itself to the new power configurations. The future of South and Southeast Asian security will depend, in part, on how regional stakeholders navigate these changes while striving to preserve stability.
Kawsar Uddin Mahmud is a geopolitical analyst and a researcher at the KRF Center for Bangladesh and Global Affairs. He can be reached at kawsarduir@gmail.com.
Views expressed in this article are the author's own.
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