The US goes red: Another round of Trump presidency
The night started off, as it does, with red states. But unlike 2020, there was no confusion. The percentage of votes counted quickly began to show a clear picture: Donald Trump's victory.
Trump won the presidency through the electoral system and the popular vote, which has not happened in the past two decades. He overperformed in several states, following the trends of the previous two elections that polls underestimated his voters. In three consecutive election cycles, pollsters have not gotten a grip on Trump supporters. The media has engaged in many satirical theories to understand the mass support for Donald Trump in the US. What's clear is that the US media and institutions in general need to figure out what can aptly be described as a shift to the far-right. No comparisons with Hitler, no cases, could stop him.
In 2016, when Hilary Clinton lost, precisely the same way by losing the "Blue Wall"—Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin—the underlying reasons behind Trump's victory were not addressed. Rather, the analysis focused on the glass ceiling and Clinton's loss. Doing so for this election would be the gravest mistake. While it could be true that Harris's gender has a part to play in her loss, it is well-known that Joe Biden would have lost against Trump as well. When asked in several interviews what Harris would change about the Biden-Harris administration, she reverted to her pride, steering clear of showing how she would drastically differ from her boss.
While a comprehensive major picture of the voter turnout is yet to emerge, the early voter turnout—more than 80 million US citizens cast their votes before November 5—was high. As it happened in 2020, mail-in ballots proved to switch the game for Biden; we waited days as votes were being counted during the pandemic. The high turnout, especially early, when juxtaposed with the sheer number—not just in the Electoral College—of votes for Donald Trump and the fact that he might also win the popular vote, is telling of the national sentiment in the US. While a lot is to be seen in the coming days, it's clear that the US is shifting to the far-right. It's incumbent on all of us to reconcile, as hard as it may be for some, that US politics has moved to a state that an imprudent person is preferred over diplomatic human beings.
Kamala Harris underperformed in commonly Blue counties in the battleground states, where her boss, President Joe Biden, performed better in 2020. For example, in upscale Detroit, Michigan, Harris performed much worse than Biden in 2020. Though the causes of her underperformance will emerge more in the coming days, and data needs to be gathered to understand where Harris went wrong—one fact is clear: Harris's centrist campaign in a polarised US simply did not work. In many ways, it was a clever strategy on paper: reviving the John McCain and Mitt Romney type of Republican. But for now, it can be concluded that centrism is hardly reading the room in a country so polarised. In North Carolina, for example, where Trump won, several counties shifted left while others shifted right, according to The New York Times. Standing in the middle ground, the classic case of trying to please every party undoubtedly played a role in Harris's unexpectedly disappointing performance in the elections.
And whatever strategy the Democrats have deployed in electioneering along with their policies now stands to be proven as outdated. It must be noted that the Republican turnout machine—largely powered by allied conservative groups—focused on getting reliably conservative voters back to the polls for Trump. And it worked.
Republicans took over the Senate, retaking the chamber for the first time in four years. The House is also poised to be Republican. Everything, from the president-elect's policies on taxes to healthcare, will depend on the makeup of the two chambers of Congress. The Senate is solely responsible for confirming a president's cabinet officials and judges—from the federal, district and Supreme Court. Four of the nine justices—other than Trump's appointees—are in their 70s.
A Republican-led Senate would boost Trump's far-right presidency, and it was the only institution that provided the necessary logjams for Trump's loyalist tendencies and his "I can do whatever I want" mindset as the leader of a democratic nation. Though there are moderate voices in the Senate, including Senator Susan Collins of Maine, who was outspoken against Trump, this Senate is more likely to defer to him, who will be all the more recharged with a second term in the White House.
The implications for a Trump victory are far-reaching for the turbulent political atmosphere in the US. Donald Trump is a man who openly favours loyalty over the country, yet he is still favoured by citizens, for whatever reasons. A second Trump term, along with the Republican sweep, means we are possibly looking at a completely new version of US politics. The country is in need of some soul-searching, now more than ever.
Ramisa Rob is in-charge of Geopolitical Insights at The Daily Star.
Views expressed in this article are the author's own.
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