NBR needs to collect Tk 2 lakh crore in three months
The National Board of Revenue (NBR) faces the Herculean task of collecting nearly Tk 2 lakh crore in the final three months of the current fiscal year to meet conditions set by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) under its $4.7 billion loan programme.
The IMF, led by Mission Chief Chris Papageorgiou, presented its revenue targets during a scheduled meeting with NBR officials at the board's headquarters in the Agargaon area of the capital on Sunday.
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"The IMF team asked us to raise the tax-GDP ratio to 7.9 percent by June, which is currently at 7.4 percent," said a senior NBR official who attended the meeting.
To meet the target, the revenue board needs to collect a total of Tk 4.55 lakh crore by June — meaning revenue would need to grow by 19 percent in FY 2024-25 compared to actual receipts from the previous year.
However, revenue growth stood at a mere 1.7 percent as of February.
Against this backdrop, the NBR official described the expectations of the multilateral lender as "high, ambitious and unrealistic."
According to an internal estimation by the revenue board, the NBR has so far mobilised around Tk 2.52 lakh crore during the July–March period.
In addition to the short-term target, the IMF has urged the government to lift the tax-GDP ratio to 9 percent in FY 2025-26.
"The IMF also suggested reducing existing tax expenditures and introducing a uniform value-added tax (VAT) rate," the NBR official added.
However, the government has already made it clear that any VAT reform would be implemented gradually, not all at once.
These developments come as the IMF carries out a review mission that began on Sunday and is set to continue until 17 April. The review will determine whether Bangladesh qualifies for the release of two instalments together from the $4.7 billion loan package, after the disbursement of the fourth tranche was delayed due to unmet conditions.
As part of the mission, the IMF also held discussions with the finance adviser, finance secretary, and the Bangladesh Bank governor. It also met officials from the Macroeconomic Wing of the Finance Division.
During these meetings, the IMF shared a slightly more optimistic outlook for Bangladesh's economy, upgrading its GDP growth projection to 4 percent for the current fiscal year — up from its December estimate of 3.8 percent. The government, by contrast, is targeting 5.25 percent growth.
Looking ahead, the IMF expects the economy to rebound to 6.5 percent growth in FY 2025-26 — a slight downward revision from its previous forecast of 6.7 percent.
Meanwhile, the inflation outlook has improved. The IMF now projects average inflation at 9 percent for FY25, down from its earlier estimate of 11 percent.
The government remains more upbeat, forecasting inflation to ease to 8 percent this fiscal year and fall further to 6.5 percent in FY26.
The IMF team also held separate meetings yesterday with the Bangladesh Bank and the Ministry of Planning.
Commenting on the country's economic trajectory under the interim government, Finance Adviser Salehuddin Ahmed said on Sunday that things were stable and moving in the right direction.
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